Matthew Boyd (CHC) is in the midst of a career year, but he’s hit a slight bump. His last outing against the Brewers wasn’t his sharpest (4 ER in 5.1 IP), but there’s no reason to sound the alarms just yet. In fact, the numbers point to a prime bounce-back spot tonight.
Why? The San Francisco Giants have been downright anemic against left-handed pitching this season. They own one of the lowest team wRC+ marks in the league against southpaws, and their strikeout rate is up around 25%. This plays right into Boyd’s strengths. He’s already dominated this Giants lineup once this year, and the conditions are perfect for him to do it again. I’m feeling confident he gets back on track.
On the other side, Justin Verlander (SF) is… well, he’s Justin Verlander. The future Hall-of-Famer still has moments where he looks like the ace of old. Just two starts ago, he absolutely carved up a good Dodgers lineup over seven shutout innings.
But father time is undefeated. The consistency just isn’t there anymore. He’s been hit around more often than we’re used to seeing, and he’s been particularly vulnerable to left-handed bats this season. This is where the Cubs need to be disciplined. If they wait him out and force him into the zone, they can get to him. If they chase his elite off-speed stuff early in counts, it could be a long night.
X-Factor: Pete Crow-Armstrong’s Spark
All eyes should be on Pete Crow-Armstrong tonight. Hitting clean-up, PCA represents exactly the kind of left-handed power that has given Verlander fits this season. But it’s not just about the bat. His elite speed and Gold Glove-caliber defense in center field can single-handedly change the game. A diving catch to save a run or a hustle double turned into a triple could be the spark that ignites the entire Cubs offense.
Cubs vs Giants Prediction
This feels like a pitching duel for the first five innings. Boyd matches up too well with this Giants lineup to expect a blowup, and Verlander still has enough magic to keep hitters guessing.
But the difference will be the bullpens and a key hit late. The Cubs’ offense is deeper and more potent, especially from the left side. I think they grind out at-bats, get Verlander’s pitch count up, and break through against the Giants’ middle relief.
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